Superforecasting

Written By Philip Tetlock
Superforecasting
  • Publsiher : Random House
  • Release : 24 September 2015
  • ISBN : 1448166594
  • Pages : 352 pages
  • Rating : 4/5 from 21 reviews
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Read or download book entitled Superforecasting written by Philip Tetlock which was release on 24 September 2015, this book published by Random House. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle Format. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER WINNER OF THE CMI MANAGEMENT FUTURES BOOK OF THE YEAR AWARD 'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project – an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions – has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit – whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life. 'The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone.' Economist 'A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly recommended.' Independent 'The best thing I have read on predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity.' The Times

Superforecasting

Superforecasting
  • Author : Philip Tetlock,Dan Gardner
  • Publisher : Random House
  • Release Date : 2015-09-24
  • Total pages : 352
  • ISBN : 1448166594
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Summary : NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER WINNER OF THE CMI MANAGEMENT FUTURES BOOK OF THE YEAR AWARD 'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will ...

Superforecasting

Superforecasting
  • Author : Instaread
  • Publisher : Instaread
  • Release Date : 2015-12-14
  • Total pages : 37
  • ISBN : 1448166594
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Summary : Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner | Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review Preview: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a nonfiction book about the accuracy of forecasting. It recounts the efforts of Philip E. Tetlock, a professor of psychology and marketing at the Wharton School of Business of ...

Summary of Superforecasting

Summary of Superforecasting
  • Author : Instaread Summaries
  • Publisher : Idreambooks
  • Release Date : 2016-04-05
  • Total pages : 36
  • ISBN : 1448166594
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Summary : Inside this Instaread of Superforecasting:* Overview of the book* Important People* Key Takeaways* Analysis of Key Takeaways...

Superforecasting

Superforecasting
  • Author : Anonim
  • Publisher : Unknown
  • Release Date : 2015
  • Total pages : 212
  • ISBN : 1448166594
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Summary : Abstract Reflecting on Tetlock and Gardner's "Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters"...

Superforecasting

Superforecasting
  • Author : Instaread
  • Publisher : Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
  • Release Date : 2015-12-14
  • Total pages : 36
  • ISBN : 1448166594
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Summary : PLEASE NOTE: This is key takeaways and analysis of the book and NOT the original book. Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review Preview: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a nonfiction book about the accuracy of forecasting. It recounts the efforts of ...

Philip E Tetlock and Dan Gardner Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction New York Broadway Books 2015 340 Pages 17 00 Paperback

Philip E  Tetlock and Dan Gardner  Superforecasting  The Art and Science of Prediction  New York  Broadway Books  2015  340 Pages   17 00 Paperback
  • Author : Anonim
  • Publisher : Unknown
  • Release Date : 2018
  • Total pages : 212
  • ISBN : 1448166594
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Summary : Download or read online Philip E Tetlock and Dan Gardner Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction New York Broadway Books 2015 340 Pages 17 00 Paperback written by , published by which was released on 2018. Get Philip E Tetlock and Dan Gardner Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction New York Broadway Books 2015 340 Pages 17 00 ...

Superforecasting Or Snafu

Superforecasting Or Snafu
  • Author : David L. Raugh
  • Publisher : Unknown
  • Release Date : 2019
  • Total pages : 137
  • ISBN : 1448166594
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Summary : What is the impact of military institutional tendencies and habits on U.S. Army senior officer forecasting accuracy and how does this forecasting ability shape success in battle? Military leaders plan operations based on the forecasted strengths and vulnerabilities of their adversary. Negative habits, such as limited option development, confirmation ...

Expert Political Judgment

Expert Political Judgment
  • Author : Philip E. Tetlock
  • Publisher : Princeton University Press
  • Release Date : 2017-08-29
  • Total pages : 368
  • ISBN : 1448166594
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Summary : Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, ...

Future Babble

Future Babble
  • Author : Dan Gardner
  • Publisher : Plume
  • Release Date : 2012-02
  • Total pages : 320
  • ISBN : 1448166594
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Summary : "Genuinely arresting . . . required reading for journalists, politicians, academics, and anyone who listens to them." -Steven Pinker, author of How the Mind Works We are awash in predictions. In newspapers, blogs, and books; on radio and television. Every day experts tell us how the economy will perform next year, if housing ...

The Science of Fear

The Science of Fear
  • Author : Daniel Gardner
  • Publisher : Penguin
  • Release Date : 2008-07-17
  • Total pages : 368
  • ISBN : 1448166594
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Summary : “An invaluable resource for anyone who aspires to think clearly” (The Guardian) from the New York Times bestselling author of Superforecasting and Future Babble From terror attacks to collapsing economies, from painkiller epidemics to mass gun violence and poisonous toys from China, our list of fears seems to be exploding. ...

Factfulness

Factfulness
  • Author : Hans Rosling,Ola Rosling,Anna Rosling Rönnlund
  • Publisher : Hachette UK
  • Release Date : 2018-04-03
  • Total pages : 352
  • ISBN : 1448166594
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Summary : 'One of the most important books I've ever read - an indispensable guide to thinking clearly about the world' BILL GATES 'A hopeful book about the potential for human progress when we work off facts rather than our inherent biases' BARACK OBAMA The international bestseller, inspiring and revelatory, filled with ...

The Fashion Forecasters

The Fashion Forecasters
  • Author : Regina Lee Blaszczyk,Ben Wubs
  • Publisher : Bloomsbury Publishing
  • Release Date : 2018-03-08
  • Total pages : 296
  • ISBN : 1448166594
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Summary : The fashion business has been collecting and analyzing information about colors, fabrics, silhouettes, and styles since the 18th century - activities that have long been shrouded in mystery. The Fashion Forecasters is the first book to reveal the hidden history of color and trend forecasting and to explore its relevance ...

Consultants and Consulting Organizations Directory

Consultants and Consulting Organizations Directory
  • Author : Anonim
  • Publisher : Unknown
  • Release Date : 2006
  • Total pages : 212
  • ISBN : 1448166594
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Summary : Download or read online Consultants and Consulting Organizations Directory written by , published by which was released on 2006. Get Consultants and Consulting Organizations Directory Books now! Available in PDF, ePub and Kindle....

Computers and Data Processing Today with Pascal

Computers and Data Processing Today with Pascal
  • Author : Steven L. Mandell
  • Publisher : West Group
  • Release Date : 1986
  • Total pages : 661
  • ISBN : 1448166594
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Summary : Download or read online Computers and Data Processing Today with Pascal written by Steven L. Mandell, published by West Group which was released on 1986. Get Computers and Data Processing Today with Pascal Books now! Available in PDF, ePub and Kindle....

Computers and Data Processing Today with BASIC

Computers and Data Processing Today with BASIC
  • Author : Steven L. Mandell
  • Publisher : West Group
  • Release Date : 1986
  • Total pages : 472
  • ISBN : 1448166594
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Summary : Download or read online Computers and Data Processing Today with BASIC written by Steven L. Mandell, published by West Group which was released on 1986. Get Computers and Data Processing Today with BASIC Books now! Available in PDF, ePub and Kindle....