Calculated Risks

Written By Gerd Gigerenzer
Calculated Risks
  • Publsiher : Simon and Schuster
  • Release : 10 November 2015
  • ISBN : 1439127093
  • Pages : 288 pages
  • Rating : 3/5 from 3 reviews
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Read or download book entitled Calculated Risks written by Gerd Gigerenzer which was release on 10 November 2015, this book published by Simon and Schuster. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle Format. Book excerpt: At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.

Calculated Risks

Calculated Risks
  • Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
  • Publisher : Simon and Schuster
  • Release Date : 2015-11-10
  • Total pages : 288
  • ISBN : 1439127093
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Summary : At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we ...

A Calculated Risk

A Calculated Risk
  • Author : Katherine Neville
  • Publisher : Open Road Media
  • Release Date : 2015-07-21
  • Total pages : 401
  • ISBN : 1439127093
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Summary : A female financial whiz plans the perfect bank heist in this “high-tech, high-stakes” thriller from the #1 international-bestselling author of The Eight (The Washington Post). Verity Banks is the one of the most powerful women in finance, but she still reports to a man. Her boss not only refuses to implement ...

Calculated Risk

Calculated Risk
  • Author : George Leopold
  • Publisher : Purdue University Press
  • Release Date : 2016
  • Total pages : 378
  • ISBN : 1439127093
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Summary : Unlike other American astronauts, Virgil I. "Gus" Grissom never had the chance to publish his memoirs—save for an account of his role in the Gemini program—before the tragic launch pad fire on January 27, 1967, which took his life and those of Edward White and Roger Chaffee. The international prestige ...

Calculated Risk

Calculated Risk
  • Author : Jonna Doolittle Hoppes
  • Publisher : Santa Monica Press
  • Release Date : 2005-03-01
  • Total pages : 334
  • ISBN : 1439127093
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Summary : Famous for leading the Tokyo Raid, America's first strike against Japan in World War II, Jimmy Doolittle led a remarkable life as an American pilot. This firsthand account by his granddaughter reveals an extraordinary individual—a scientist with a doctorate in aeronautical engineering from MIT, an aviation pioneer who was ...

Calculated Risk

Calculated Risk
  • Author : Anonim
  • Publisher : Unknown
  • Release Date : 1960
  • Total pages : 191
  • ISBN : 1439127093
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Summary : Download or read online Calculated Risk written by , published by which was released on 1960. Get Calculated Risk Books now! Available in PDF, ePub and Kindle....

Calculated Risks

Calculated Risks
  • Author : Joseph V. Rodricks
  • Publisher : Cambridge University Press
  • Release Date : 2006-11-23
  • Total pages : 358
  • ISBN : 1439127093
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Summary : Safeguarding economic prosperity, whilst protecting human health and the environment, is at the forefront of scientific and public interest. This book provides a practical and balanced view on toxicology, control, risk assessment and risk management, addressing the interplay between science and public health policy. This revised edition provides a detailed ...

Calculated Risk

Calculated Risk
  • Author : George Leopold
  • Publisher : Purdue University Press
  • Release Date : 2016-06-15
  • Total pages : 416
  • ISBN : 1439127093
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Summary : Unlike other American astronauts, Virgil I. "Gus"Grissom never had the chance to publish his memoirs. Killed along with his crewin a launch pad fire on January 27, 1967, Grissom also lost his chance to walkon the moon and return to describe his journey. Others went in his place. Thestories of the ...

Calculated Risk

Calculated Risk
  • Author : Heather Woodhaven
  • Publisher : Harlequin
  • Release Date : 2015-01-06
  • Total pages : 224
  • ISBN : 1439127093
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Summary : CLANDESTINE COVER-UP Accountant Victoria Hayes never would have thought discovering fraud in her office would put her life at risk. When her house catches fire, destroying the evidence she's collected, it seems the mastermind will do anything to keep Victoria from disclosing what she knows. Unsure what to do, she ...

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Calculated Risk
  • Author : United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. Subcommittee on Housing and Transportation
  • Publisher : Unknown
  • Release Date : 2009
  • Total pages : 377
  • ISBN : 1439127093
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Summary : Download or read online Calculated Risk written by United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. Subcommittee on Housing and Transportation, published by which was released on 2009. Get Calculated Risk Books now! Available in PDF, ePub and Kindle....

Calculated Risk Large Print 16pt

Calculated Risk  Large Print 16pt
  • Author : Mark W. Clark
  • Publisher : ReadHowYouWant.com
  • Release Date : 2011-04-01
  • Total pages : 764
  • ISBN : 1439127093
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Summary : Mark W. Clark was a major figure in World War II. He was prominent as one of the top American commanders. Together with Dwight D. Eisenhower, Omar N. Bradley, and George S. Patton, Jr., Clark was widely regarded as being responsible for victory on the European side of the conflict. ...

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Calculated Risk
  • Author : Zoe M McCarthy
  • Publisher : Pelican Ventures Book Group
  • Release Date : 2014-11-21
  • Total pages : 279
  • ISBN : 1439127093
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Summary : Whoever said opposites attract was right, of course...but no one ever said what they attract. Jilted by the latest of her father's choices of 'real men,' Cisney Baldwin rashly accepts an invitation to spend Thanksgiving weekend with a sympathetic colleague and his family. Nick LeCrone is a man ...

Calculated Risk

Calculated Risk
  • Author : Janie Crouch
  • Publisher : Harlequin
  • Release Date : 2019-07-01
  • Total pages : 256
  • ISBN : 1439127093
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Summary : She thought she was finally safe, But her past won’t let her go. Sheriff’s deputy Tanner Dempsey is just doing his job when he stops a shoplifter trying to steal diapers and formula. But something about this frightened young woman makes him want to do more. Bree Daniels ...

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Calculated Risk
  • Author : Collin Wilcox
  • Publisher : Overamstel Uitgevers
  • Release Date : 2013-11-05
  • Total pages : 212
  • ISBN : 1439127093
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Summary : A gay man’s murder leads Hastings to a blackmail plot Charles Hardaway climbs the hill to his house, immediately missing the bright lights and conversation of the bar and dreading the return to his lover, who is slowly dying of AIDS. But Hardaway’s self-pity is interrupted by a ...

Calculated Risk

Calculated Risk
  • Author : Melissa F. Miller
  • Publisher : Brown Street Books
  • Release Date : 2017
  • Total pages : 212
  • ISBN : 1439127093
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Summary : Download or read online Calculated Risk written by Melissa F. Miller, published by Brown Street Books which was released on 2017. Get Calculated Risk Books now! Available in PDF, ePub and Kindle....

A Calculated Risk

A Calculated Risk
  • Author : Sean Chercover
  • Publisher : MIRA
  • Release Date : 2018-01-01
  • Total pages : 400
  • ISBN : 1439127093
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Summary : Prepare for edge-of-your-seat suspense in this Thriller Short. Originally published in THRILLER 2 (2009), edited by #1 New York Times bestselling author Clive Cussler. In this Thriller Short, bestselling author Sean Chercover displays his knowledge of the sea, diving and illegal trafficking. Two men with shady backgrounds come together on a fishing boat ...